Spending watchdog praises everyone involved in programme but warns of ‘substantial risks’ to future success

The Covid vaccination rollout saved 128,000 lives, inoculated more people than expected and was good value for money at £8.3bn, a major Whitehall report says.

Despite its success, 3.7 million people are unvaccinated and “substantial risks” to programme’s future success remain, including the need to settle who delivers jabs in the months to come, because NHS staff already have jobs, according to the National Audit Office.

The spending watchdog praised everyone involved in the vaccine programme in England, including the taskforce ministers assembled, NHS England and what at its peak was the army of 60,000 vaccinators and 65,000 volunteers and administrative staff needed for such a huge undertaking.

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The taskforce, which was initially headed by Kate Bingham, secured early supplies of available vaccines and ensured supplies were maintained throughout the pandemic, it said.

“The vaccine programme met stretching and unprecedented targets to offer two doses of Covid-19 vaccine to most adults in a short space of time,” the NAO said in an assessment of how the programme unfolded between its inception in 2020 to the end of October 2021.

For example, by last July NHS England had achieved all its key deployment targets, including offering all adults a second dose by 19 July.

“Uptake has exceeded expectations”, noted the NAO, the 87m doses administered by the end of October six times more than the number of winter flu jabs the NHS usually delivers. By early last summer 96% of people who had had the vaccine felt positively about being vaccinated.

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“The speed and uptake of the vaccine should be considered a real success,” said Meg Hillier, the Labour MP who chairs the Commons public accounts committee. “Great credit is due to all those involved, including the scientists creating the vaccines, the national bodies involved in securing the doses we needed and all those administering the jabs.”

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NHS planners and vaccination site staff displayed “goodwill, flexibility and dedication” to ensure the number of centres needed were set up and ran smoothly, the NAO added.

However, “lower vaccination rates persist in some groups”, notably those aged between 18 and 29, some people from minority ethnic backgrounds, including those of Chinese and black Caribbean origin, and also mothers-to-be, despite campaigns intended to prompt take-up among them.

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And although the government pledged to vaccinate most 12- to 15-year-olds by late October 2021, only 25% were jabbed by that date because of “challenges to this rollout”.

The vaccination drive has cost £8.3bn in the two years since the pandemic struck, the NAO said – the first time this figure has been disclosed. Of that, £4.6bn went to the taskforce, which it spent mostly in vaccines, and the other £3.7bn on the rollout.

Although 4.6m doses have been wasted, that represents just 4% of the total number made available so far and is far below the 15% to 20% wastage expected. About 1.9m doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine had to be written off when the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation said it should not be given to those under 40 amid safety fears.

The NAO warned that there was “considerable risks to the programme’s continuing success” include staffing, staff burnout and “the lack of surplus capacity in the healthcare system generally”.

Ruth Rankine, director of primary care at the NHS Confederation, said: “Despite a multitude of hurdles primary care has consistently shown just how fast and agile it can be delivering 87m vaccinations in less than a year to October 2021 and a further 38m boosters this winter. This is a truly incredible achievement.”