Here’s a cut-throat fact: ending extreme poverty and tackling global warming evolves into a straightforward challenge — the very economic engine needed to move millions from poverty simultaneously increases greenhouse gas emissions.

In other words, what may lift you out of poverty is also what could kill you.

Throughout history, economic growth and poverty reduction have been closely linked, shedding light on the inescapable carbon footprint tied to increasing consumption. This spans those beneath the international poverty line of US $2.15 per day and also those in higher income brackets.

But when analyzing the emissions linked to vital economic growth for extreme poverty alleviation, consider this: a modest increase in global emissions, with estimates ranging from less than 1% to about 4.9% of the 2019 global emissions (2.37 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) is the cost of elevating millions from extreme poverty.

Think about it in real-world terms — rescuing entire nations from poverty at a fraction of our global carbon footprint. Emissions from 1965 to 2017 from big oil Saudia Aramco have been 25 times higher, and they are only filling sheiks’ pockets and paying for soccer players.

This analysis transcends the abstract, unveiling the dynamics between consumption, economic growth, and the carbon intensity of gross domestic product (GDP). Yet, the crux of the challenge lies not just in aligning extreme poverty alleviation with climate goals but in steering a course toward sustainable living for the regular John and Joanne Doe’s middle-income populations.

It’s not just about predictions; it’s about rescuing lives from poverty while preserving our planet’s delicate climate balance.