As of early December 2025, the United States appears to be entering the winter season under unusually mild conditions for respiratory illness — a surprising respite that has public-health experts watching closely. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as of December 1, “the amount of acute respiratory illness causing people to seek health care is at a low level.” Seasonal influenza activity remains low nationally, and while activity from Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is rising in parts of the South and Southeast, overall viral activity including COVID-19 remains subdued.

That lull may prompt relief — but experts warn this quiet may not last, and that communities should remain alert.

The sharp drop in respiratory illness so far this season contrasts dramatically with recent years, when combined peaks of influenza, COVID-19 and RSV regularly strained hospital systems. The CDC’s current estimates, bolstered by enhanced hospital data reporting under new requirements adopted in late 2024, suggest that hospitalizations tied to these viruses remain well below typical winter season surges.

One possible factor contributing to the dip is shifting patterns of human behavior. The fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic — including increased remote work, more cautious social interactions in certain communities, and higher hygiene awareness — may still be reducing viral transmission broadly. Another contributing element may be vaccination: while coverage remains far from universal, according to a new survey by the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases (NFID), about 45 percent of U.S. adults reported receiving at least one respiratory-virus vaccine since September 2025, the onset of the current season. That includes roughly 34 percent who got a seasonal flu shot and 25 percent who received the latest COVID-19 vaccine.

Yet as the holiday season brings colder weather, increased indoor gatherings, travel, and larger social contacts, many experts caution the lull may soon end. The CDC’s seasonal outlook for 2025–2026 notes that peak hospitalizations from combined respiratory viruses could approach — or even match — levels seen in previous seasons, depending on how flu, COVID-19, or RSV trajectories evolve.

Communities of color, which frequently bear disproportionate burdens of disease, may face particular risk if a surge arrives soon. In many urban and under-resourced neighborhoods, housing density, multigenerational households, limited access to healthcare, and lower vaccine uptake can lead to more severe outcomes. Public-health advocates emphasize the importance of targeted outreach for vaccination, culturally responsive health messaging, and increased access to preventive care.

One concern among health officials is rising complacency. The NFID survey revealed that among unvaccinated adults, 16 percent cited safety concerns over side effects, while 13 percent said they “never get sick.” Others said no healthcare provider had recommended vaccination, or questioned vaccine effectiveness.

With many respiratory viruses still circulating globally — including emerging variants and less-monitored agents — even a small uptick in viral activity could shift the national picture quickly. For now, the low rate of illness offers a brief but fragile reprieve. Public-health leaders warn that winter’s return to indoor life may not only bring seasonal flu or RSV — but potential new or returning viruses that challenge communities unprepared for rapid spread.

As the season moves on, experts say the key to maintaining this calm is vigilance: continuing vaccination where recommended, encouraging hygiene and safety in crowded or poorly ventilated settings, and strengthening public-health outreach to ensure vulnerable and underserved populations have access to information and care.

In the face of this unusually quiet start, communities still have time for a chance at a healthier winter — but only if they act before the next wave arrives.